An integrated framework for the inference of viral population history from reconstructed genealogies

Genetics. 2000 Jul;155(3):1429-37. doi: 10.1093/genetics/155.3.1429.

Abstract

We describe a unified set of methods for the inference of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from gene sequence data. We introduce the skyline plot, a graphical, nonparametric estimate of demographic history. We discuss both maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and demographic hypothesis testing. Simulations are carried out to investigate the statistical properties of maximum-likelihood estimates of demographic parameters. The simulations reveal that (i) the performance of exponential growth model estimates is determined by a simple function of the true parameter values and (ii) under some conditions, estimates from reconstructed trees perform as well as estimates from perfect trees. We apply our methods to HIV-1 sequence data and find strong evidence that subtypes A and B have different demographic histories. We also provide the first (albeit tentative) genetic evidence for a recent decrease in the growth rate of subtype B.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Africa South of the Sahara / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks / classification
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Genes, env / genetics
  • Genes, gag / genetics
  • Genetic Variation
  • Genetics, Population*
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / genetics
  • HIV Infections / transmission
  • HIV-1 / genetics*
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Logistic Models
  • Models, Genetic*
  • Pedigree
  • Phylogeny
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Statistical Distributions