In this paper, an ecological model is proposed to predict the effects of heavy metals on aquatic ecosystems. The bioavailable concentration of metals and a concept of toxicity strength (TS) are combined. The integrated ecological model relates the transport, distribution and speciation of heavy metals and their toxicity, and the effect of environmental variability on metal toxicity. It also emphasizes the link between physical and chemical processes of heavy metals in rivers and ecological effects. Based on the data obtained from research in the CERP project (Co-operative Ecological Research Project), the ecological impact of heavy metals on the aquatic ecosystem of the Le An River (polluted by heavy metals from a copper mine) was predicted. The results show that the estimated values of toxicity strength for surface water are in agreement with the percentage inhibition for the test organism (P. phosphoreum) and that the predicted ecological effect of polluted sediment is consistent with natural variability in aquatic ecosystems.