Purpose: To prospectively assess potential risk factors for relapse in clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell tumors of the testis (CS I NSGCT).
Patients and methods: From September 1996 to May 2002, 200 patients with CS I NSGCT were prospectively assigned to retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND), and risk factor assessment was performed within a multicenter protocol. One hundred sixty-five patients had an adequate minimum follow-up of 12 months (mean, 34.5 months) or had pathologic stage II.
Results: Pathologic stage II disease was found in 27.9% of patients. Only 0.6% of patients relapsed in the retroperitoneum after confirmation of pathologic stage I disease. With reference pathology, vascular invasion (VI) was most predictive of stage in multifactorial analysis (accuracy, 65.1%). However, the positive predictive value (PPV) of VI to predict patients who have metastatic disease or relapse during follow-up was only 52.7%. With absent VI, low-risk patients had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 76.9%. With a combination of several risk factors, the PPV increased to 63.6% and the negative predictive value increased to 86.5%.
Conclusion: Even with an optimal combination of prognostic factors and reference pathology, more than one third of patients predicted to have pathologic stage II or relapse during follow-up will not harbor metastatic disease and, therefore, would be overtreated with adjuvant therapy. However, patients at low risk may be predicted at an 86.5% level, and thus, surveillance in highly compliant patients would be a valuable option. For high-risk patients, further reduction of adjuvant treatment is necessary.