Background: Aim of this study was to examine the effect of hay fever in childhood for asthma onset from childhood to adulthood in a prospective cohort of 3,199 asthma-free children, initially aged 5-13 years, which were followed for up to 12 years in East-Germany.
Methods: Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) of asthma onset due to hay fever at baseline were calculated by a generalized estimation equation approach accounting for person years at risk, age at study entry, parental asthma, and gender.
Results: Overall 142 incident cases of asthma were observed. Prevalence of hay fever at baseline was 4%. Crude and adjusted IRR were essentially the same and showed overall and in each age group a substantial higher risk of asthma onset due to hay fever. The adjusted IRR was 4 overall and ranged between 3 and 5 within the three age groups. Restricting the analysis to those participants, who were 17-25 years of age at the end of follow-up resulted in similar IRR.
Conclusion: Hay fever in childhood is a strong predictor of asthma onset later in life up to adulthood. The preventive potential of early and efficient treatment of allergic rhinitis to avoid asthma development needs to be investigated.