Study objective: To project and compare long-term outcomes of morbidity and mortality, and costs of complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus from a randomized controlled trial of patients receiving liraglutide versus glimepiride monotherapy.
Design: Mathematic simulation using the validated Center for Outcomes Research (CORE) Diabetes Model, calibrated to baseline patient characteristics from a short-term, randomized, controlled trial of liraglutide and glimepiride monotherapies (Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes [LEAD]-3 trial) and using data from long-term outcomes studies.
Setting: Simulated routine clinical practice.
Patients: Seven hundred forty-six patients with type 2 diabetes who participated in the LEAD-3 trial, and three hypothetical cohorts of 5000 patients each that were based on the baseline characteristics of the patients in the LEAD-3 trial. The patients in the LEAD-3 trial were randomly assigned to monotherapy with liraglutide 1.2 mg/day (251 patients), liraglutide 1.8 mg/day (247 patients), or glimepiride 8 mg/day (248 patients).
Measurements and main results: The impact of the three treatments for type 2 diabetes on survival and cumulative incidence of cardiovascular, ocular, or renal events and costs were estimated at three time periods: 10, 20, and 30 years. Simulations predicted improved survival for liraglutide 1.8 and 1.2 mg at all three time points compared with glimepiride. Survival benefits were greatest after 30 years of follow-up: 16.5%, 13.6%, and 7.3%, respectively. The frequency of nonfatal renal and ocular events was lower for both liraglutide doses than for glimepiride. The rate of neuropathies leading to first or recurrent amputation was higher for glimepiride compared with both liraglutide doses. The average cumulative cost/patient was higher for glimepiride compared with liraglutide 1.2 mg and liraglutide 1.8 mg.
Conclusion: With use of the CORE Diabetes Model and data from the LEAD-3 trial, long-term projected survival, diabetes complications, and costs favored liraglutide 1.2- and 1.8-mg monotherapies compared with glimepiride in the treatment of type 2 diabetes.