Background: Identification of individuals who are at risk for cardiovascular death remains a pressing public health challenge. Derangements in autonomic function acting upon an electrically unstable substrate are thought to be critical elements in triggering cardiovascular events.
Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze heart rate recovery (HRR) in combination with T-wave alternans (TWA) to improve risk assessment.
Methods: The Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS) enrolled consecutive patients (N = 1,972 [1,254 men and 718 women], age 57 +/- 13 years [mean +/- SD]) with a clinically indicated exercise test using bicycle ergometer. TWA was analyzed continuously with the time-domain modified moving average method. Maximum TWA at heart rates <125 bpm was derived.
Results: During 48 +/- 13 months of follow-up (mean +/- SD), 116 patients died; 55 deaths were cardiovascular. In multivariable Cox analysis after adjustment for common coronary risk factors, high exercise-based TWA (> or =60 microV) and low HRR (< or =18 bpm) yielded relative risks for all-cause mortality of 5.0 (95% confidence 2.1-12.1, P <.01) and for cardiovascular mortality of 12.3 (95% confidence interval 4.3-35.3, P <.01). High recovery-based TWA (> or =60 microV) and low HRR (< or =18 bpm) yielded relative risks for all-cause death of 6.1 (95% confidence interval 2.8-13.2, P <.01) and for cardiovascular mortality of 8.0 (95% confidence interval 2.9-22.0, P <.01). Prediction by HRR and TWA, both singly and in combination, exceeded that of standard cardiovascular risk factors.
Conclusion: Reduced HRR and heightened TWA powerfully predict risk for cardiovascular and all-cause death in a low-risk population. This novel approach could aid in screening of general populations during routine exercise protocols as well as improve insights into pathophysiology.