Dynamic programming procedure for searching optimal models to estimate substitution rates based on the maximum-likelihood method

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 May 10;108(19):7860-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1018621108. Epub 2011 Apr 26.

Abstract

The substitution rate in a gene can provide valuable information for understanding its functionality and evolution. A widely used method to estimate substitution rates is the maximum-likelihood method implemented in the CODEML program in the PAML package. A limited number of branch models, chosen based on a priori information or an interest in a particular lineage(s), are tested, whereas a large number of potential models are neglected. A complementary approach is also needed to test all or a large number of possible models to search for the globally optional model(s) of maximum likelihood. However, the computational time for this search even in a small number of sequences becomes impractically long. Thus, it is desirable to explore the most probable spaces to search for the optimal models. Using dynamic programming techniques, we developed a simple computational method for searching the most probable optimal branch-specific models in a practically feasible computational time. We propose three search methods to find the optimal models, which explored O(n) (method 1) to O(n(2)) (method 2 and method 3) models when the given phylogeny has n branches. In addition, we derived a formula to calculate the number of all possible models, revealing the complexity of finding the optimal branch-specific model. We show that in a reanalysis of over 50 previously published studies, the vast majority obtained better models with significantly higher likelihoods than the conventional hypothesis model methods.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Databases, Genetic
  • Evolution, Molecular*
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Genetic*
  • Muramidase / genetics
  • Phylogeny
  • Primates / genetics
  • Selection, Genetic
  • Software*

Substances

  • Muramidase