Inferring epidemiological parameters on the basis of allele frequencies

Genetics. 2011 Jul;188(3):663-72. doi: 10.1534/genetics.111.126466. Epub 2011 May 5.

Abstract

In this article, I develop a methodology for inferring the transmission rate and reproductive value of an epidemic on the basis of genotype data from a sample of infected hosts. The epidemic is modeled by a birth-death process describing the transmission dynamics in combination with an infinite-allele model describing the evolution of alleles. I provide a recursive formulation for the probability of the allele frequencies in a sample of hosts and a Bayesian framework for estimating transmission rates and reproductive values on the basis of observed allele frequencies. Using the Bayesian method, I reanalyze tuberculosis data from the United States. I estimate a net transmission rate of 0.19/year [0.13, 0.24] and a reproductive value of 1.02 [1.01, 1.04]. I demonstrate that the allele frequency probability under the birth-death model does not follow the well-known Ewens' sampling formula that holds under Kingman's coalescent.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Alleles
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Birth Rate
  • Epidemics
  • Gene Frequency
  • Genetics, Population / methods*
  • Genetics, Population / statistics & numerical data
  • Genotype
  • Humans
  • Models, Genetic
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Mutation
  • Mycobacterium tuberculosis / growth & development
  • Tuberculosis / genetics*
  • Tuberculosis / mortality
  • Tuberculosis / transmission
  • United States / epidemiology