Psychological strain was measured in 592 Naval personnel at four phases using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). The GHQ-12 Likert score was summed to generate a measure of cumulative strain, which was best predicted by the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (CFQ) score, effort-reward imbalance and a measure of organisational commitment. Point strain at phase IV was best predicted by CFQ score, whereas need for recovery was best predicted by over-commitment to work role. Susceptibility to strain, both cumulatively over 2 years and 12 months in the future appears to depend on a cognitive factor measured by the CFQ. This factor was more strongly associated with strain than with fatigue. Psychosocial stress exposure at work played a lesser role in predicting cumulative and future strain, possibly because these stressors were of an acute nature. The findings are discussed with reference to recent research on attention and anxiety and some of the practical implications are considered. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: There is renewed interest in intrinsic variables that predict adverse reactions to occupational stress. The paper presents evidence that self-reported cognitive failure is a vulnerability factor for future episodes of psychological strain. The paper strengthens the conclusions of a previous article and adds empirical support to recent research on the links between anxiety and attention.