Genotype scores that predict relevant clinical outcomes may detect other disease features and help direct prevention efforts. We report data that validate a previously established v1.0 smoking cessation quit success genotype score and describe striking differences in the score in individuals who display differing developmental trajectories of use of common addictive substances. In a cessation study, v1.0 genotype scores predicted ability to quit with P=0.00056 and area under receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.66. About 43% vs 13% quit in the upper vs lower genotype score terciles. Latent class growth analyses of a developmentally assessed sample identified three latent classes based on substance use. Higher v1.0 scores were associated with (a) higher probabilities of participant membership in a latent class that displayed low use of common addictive substances during adolescence (P=0.0004) and (b) lower probabilities of membership in a class that reported escalating use (P=0.001). These results indicate that: (a) we have identified genetic predictors of smoking cessation success, (b) genetic influences on quit success overlap with those that influence the rate at which addictive substance use is taken up during adolescence and (c) individuals at genetic risk for both escalating use of addictive substances and poor abilities to quit may provide especially urgent focus for prevention efforts.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00894166.