Background and objectives: Sequential echocardiography is routinely performed in patients with ESRD listed for transplantation. The benefit of this labor- and time-intensive measure, however, remains unclear. Thus, this study elucidated the various obtained routine echocardiography parameters that best predicted mortality and graft survival after renal transplantation.
Design, setting, participants, & measurements: This study investigated 553 first renal transplant recipients listed in the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry between 1992 and 2011 who had echocardiographic analysis at transplantation and survived at least 1 year. Cox proportional hazards models with the purposeful selection algorithms for covariables were used to identify predictors of mortality and graft loss. A Fine and Gray model was used to evaluate cause-specific death.
Results: During a median follow-up of 7.14 years, 81 patients died, and 59 patients experienced graft loss after the first year. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 85% of patients with a left atrial diameter below the median of 53 mm were alive 10 years after transplantation, whereas only 70% of those patients with a left atrial diameter equal to or above the median had survived (P<0.001). In the multivariable model, left atrial diameter (per millimeter) independently predicted overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.08; P<0.001) and cause-specific cardiac death (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08; P=0.04). Functional graft loss was predicted by the right atrial diameter (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.07; P=0.001).
Conclusion: The left atrial diameter determined at transplantation predicted overall and cardiac mortality. Patients with widely enlarged left atria exhibit a considerably reduced life expectancy. It remains to be determined, however, whether renal transplantation is futile in these patients.