Objective: This paper aims to provide estimates of future diabetes prevalence in the West Bank, occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), and to compare five future policy scenarios for diabetes prevention.
Design: We created and refined a mathematical Markov model that integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future diabetes prevalence. Model parameters were derived from the literature. Diabetes incidence was estimated using DISMOD software. We developed the model for the Palestinian population based on data available for the period 2000-2010, and validated the model by comparing predicted diabetes prevalence to subsequent actual observed diabetes prevalence rates.
Setting: West Bank oPt.
Results: Palestinian diabetes mellitus prevalence estimated by the model (for adults aged 25 or more) was 9.7% in 2000, increasing to 15.3% by 2010. Prevalence in men increased from 9.1% to 16.9% and in women from 10.2% to 13.6%. Comparisons of the model results with the observed prevalence in the Palestinian Family Health Survey showed a close fit. The model forecasts were 20.8% for 2020 and 23.4% for 2030. A 2.8% reduction in diabetes prevalence could be achieved if obesity trends start to decline by 5% in a 5-year period. If obesity prevalence was reduced by 35% in 10 years, as suggested by the WHO, diabetes prevalence might be decreased by 20%.
Conclusions: The model estimates an increase in the prevalence of diabetes which poses a large challenge to the health system. However, if bold but reasonable action is taken, effective interventions could reduce diabetes prevalence and hence the number of patients with diabetes.