Objectives: The increasing incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) in the United States may have leveled off in recent years. The risk of EA among patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) seems to be decreasing in several European cohorts, but these estimates are unknown in the United States. We aimed to determine the risk of developing EA in a national cohort of BE patients in the US Veterans Health Administration and to account for the use of endoscopic ablation and esophagectomy.
Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study from a total of 121 facilities in the Veterans Health Administration. Veteran patients with BE diagnosed between 1 October 2003 and 30 September 2009 were included and followed until esophageal cancer diagnosis, death or 30 September 2011. All EA diagnoses were verified in detailed structured reviews of medical records.
Results: We identified 29,536 patients with BE who met our eligibility criteria. Most were men (96.9%) and White (83.2%), with a mean age of 61.8 years. During 144,949 person-years of follow-up, 466 patients developed EA, yielding an incidence rate of 3.21 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.94-3.52). Excluding those who developed EA within 1 year of their index BE date lowered the incidence rate to 1.75 per 1,000 person-years. However, including additional patients who underwent endoscopic ablation or esophagectomy for HGD or EA increased the incidence rate to 4.79 (95% CI 4.44-5.16).
Conclusions: The incidence of EA in a US national cohort of mostly male veterans may be lower than previous estimates. Almost half of the EA cases were diagnosed within 1 year of their BE index date.