Background: Pre-deployment identification of soldiers at risk for long-term posttraumatic stress psychopathology after home coming is important to guide decisions about deployment. Early post-deployment identification can direct early interventions to those in need and thereby prevents the development of chronic psychopathology. Both hold significant public health benefits given large numbers of deployed soldiers, but has so far not been achieved. Here, we aim to assess the potential for pre- and early post-deployment prediction of resilience or posttraumatic stress development in soldiers by application of machine learning (ML) methods.
Methods: ML feature selection and prediction algorithms were applied to a prospective cohort of 561 Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 to identify unique risk indicators and forecast long-term posttraumatic stress responses.
Results: Robust pre- and early postdeployment risk indicators were identified, and included individual PTSD symptoms as well as total level of PTSD symptoms, previous trauma and treatment, negative emotions, and thought suppression. The predictive performance of these risk indicators combined was assessed by cross-validation. Together, these indicators forecasted long term posttraumatic stress responses with high accuracy (pre-deployment: AUC = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.81-0.87), post-deployment: AUC = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.85-0.91)).
Limitations: This study utilized a previously collected data set and was therefore not designed to exhaust the potential of ML methods. Further, the study relied solely on self-reported measures.
Conclusions: Pre-deployment and early post-deployment identification of risk for long-term posttraumatic psychopathology are feasible and could greatly reduce the public health costs of war.
Keywords: Machine learning; Military; Posttraumatic stress; Prediction; Prevention; Support vector machines.
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