Background: The role of co-morbidities in the prognosis of patients hospitalized for AHF was examined using the AHEAD (A--atrial fibrillation, H--haemoglobin<130 g/l for men and 120 g/l for women (anaemia), E--elderly (age>70years), A--abnormal renal parameters (creatinine>130 μmol/l), D--diabetes mellitus) scoring system.
Methods: AHEAD--multicentre prospective Czech registry of AHF patients; GREAT registry--international cohort of AHF patients. Data from 5846 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF (AHEAD registry; derivation cohort) were analysed to build the AHEAD score. Each risk factor of the AHEAD score was counted as 1 point. The model was validated externally using an international cohort of similar patients in the GREAT registry (6315).
Results: Main outcome was one year all-cause mortality. The mean age of patients was 72±12 years, with 61.6% of patients aged >70 years; 43.4% were women. Atrial fibrillation was present in 30.7%, anaemia in 38.2%, creatinine>130 mmol/l (abnormal renal parameters) in 30.1%, and diabetes mellitus in 44.0%. The mean AHEAD score was 2.1. In patients with AHEAD scores of 0-5, the one-year mortality rates were 13.6%, 23.4%, 32.0%, 41.1%, 47.7%, and 58.2%, respectively (p<0.001), and the 90 month mortality rates were 35.1%, 57.3%, 73.5%, 84.8%, 88.0%, and 91.7%, respectively (p<0.001).
Conclusion: The AHEAD is a simple scoring system based on the analysis of co-morbidities for the estimation of the short and long term prognosis of patients hospitalized for AHF.
Keywords: Acute heart failure; Model; Mortality; Prognosis.
Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.