Aims: To validate the modified World Health Organization (mWHO) risk classification in advanced and emerging countries, and to identify additional risk factors for cardiac events during pregnancy.
Methods and results: The ongoing prospective worldwide Registry Of Pregnancy And Cardiac disease (ROPAC) included 2742 pregnant women (mean age ± standard deviation, 29.2 ± 5.5 years) with established cardiac disease: 1827 from advanced countries and 915 from emerging countries. In patients from advanced countries, congenital heart disease was the most prevalent diagnosis (70%) while in emerging countries valvular heart disease was more common (55%). A cardiac event occurred in 566 patients (20.6%) during pregnancy: 234 (12.8%) in advanced countries and 332 (36.3%) in emerging countries. The mWHO classification had a moderate performance to discriminate between women with and without cardiac events (c-statistic 0.711 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.686-0.735). However, its performance in advanced countries (0.726) was better than in emerging countries (0.633). The best performance was found in patients with acquired heart disease from developed countries (0.712). Pre-pregnancy signs of heart failure and, in advanced countries, atrial fibrillation and no previous cardiac intervention added prognostic value to the mWHO classification, with a c-statistic of 0.751 (95% CI 0.715-0.786) in advanced countries and of 0.724 (95% CI 0.691-0.758) in emerging countries.
Conclusion: The mWHO risk classification is a useful tool for predicting cardiac events during pregnancy in women with established cardiac disease in advanced countries, but seems less effective in emerging countries. Data on pre-pregnancy cardiac condition including signs of heart failure and atrial fibrillation, may help to improve preconception counselling in advanced and emerging countries.
Keywords: Cardiac disease; Pregnancy; Risk prediction.
© 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.