The current and future burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom: Estimates and interventions

Alzheimers Dement. 2017 Jan;13(1):38-44. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.03.013. Epub 2016 May 6.

Abstract

Introduction: We estimate the burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom through to 2025 and assess the impact of potential interventions.

Methods: We compute disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through to 2025 and consider three interventions, all assumed launched in 2018; (1) an optimistic limiting case of a 100% preventive intervention with immediate uptake of 100% of the population at risk; (2) an intervention which delays onset by 5 years, linear uptake to 50% after 5 years; (3) as (2) but uptake 75% after 5 years.

Results: By 2025, the DALY burden will have increased by 42% from the Global Disease Burden 2010 estimate. Intervention results: (1) a 9% decrease by 2025; (2) a 33% increase; and (3) a 28% increase.

Discussion: At current prevalence rates, the ability of an intervention to offset the projected increase in DALY burden of dementia in the United Kingdom by 2025 appears low.

Keywords: Disease burden; Epidemiology; Mathematical model.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Community Health Planning
  • Cost of Illness
  • Dementia* / diagnosis
  • Dementia* / epidemiology
  • Dementia* / psychology
  • Dementia* / therapy
  • Disabled Persons*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Late Onset Disorders
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Prevalence
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Retrospective Studies
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology