Importance: Accumulating evidence links inflammation and atrial fibrillation (AF).
Objective: To assess whether markers of systemic and atrial inflammation are associated with incident AF in the general population.
Design, setting, and participants: The Bruneck Study is a prospective, population-based cohort study with a 20-year follow-up (n = 909). The population included a random sample of the general community aged 40 to 79 years. Levels of 13 inflammation markers were measured at baseline in 1990. Findings were replicated in a case-control sample nested within the prospective Salzburg Atherosclerosis Prevention Program in Subjects at High Individual Risk (SAPHIR) study (n = 1770). Data analysis was performed from February to May 2016.
Exposures: Levels of 13 inflammation markers.
Main outcomes and measures: Incident AF over a 20-year follow-up period in the Bruneck Study.
Results: Of the 909 participants included in the Bruneck Study, mean [SD] age was 58.8 (11.4) years and 448 (49.3%) were women. Among the 880 participants free of prevalent AF (n = 29) at baseline, 117 developed AF during the 20-year follow-up period (incidence rate, 8.2; 95% CI, 6.8-9.6 per 1000 person-years). The levels of soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) and osteoprotegerin were significantly associated with incident AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; 95% CI, 1.26-1.78; and 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.69, respectively; P < .001 with Bonferroni correction for both), but osteoprotegerin lost significance after age and sex adjustment (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.27; P > .99 with Bonferroni correction). Matrix metalloproteinase 9, metalloproteinase inhibitor 1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, P-selectin, fibrinogen, receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and E-selectin all fell short of significance (after Bonferroni correction in unadjusted and age- and sex-adjusted analyses). The HR for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.11-1.62; Bonferroni-corrected P = .03) in a multivariable model. The association was of a dose-response type, at least as strong as that obtained for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (multivariable HR for a 1-SD higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26), internally consistent in various subgroups, and successfully replicated in the SAPHIR Study (age- and sex-adjusted, and multivariable odds ratios for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.24-2.96, P = .003; and 2.59; 95% CI, 1.45-4.60; P = .001).
Conclusions and relevance: Levels of soluble VCAM-1, but not other inflammation markers, are significantly associated with new-onset AF in the general community. Future studies should address whether soluble VCAM-1 is capable of improving AF risk classification beyond the information provided by standard risk scores.