Implications of stroke and bleeding risk scores and comorbidities on episode-based bundled payments for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Curr Med Res Opin. 2018 Feb;34(2):275-284. doi: 10.1080/03007995.2017.1409200. Epub 2017 Dec 22.

Abstract

Objectives: Due to the high cost of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), this condition may be a suitable candidate for condition-specific bundled payments. This paper evaluates the healthcare cost of NVAF and uses common bleeding and stroke risk scores (HAS-BLED and CHA2DS2-VASc) to explore the risk-based healthcare cost differences among NVAF patients.

Methods: MarketScan claims of NVAF patients (ICD-9-CM code 427.31) were analyzed from January 2010 to April 2015. These claims feature more than 196 million covered lives and more than 300 contributing employers and 25 contributing health plans. A retrospective cohort design was used to assess episodes of care costs among patients with NVAF. Previously and newly diagnosed NVAF patients were selected from adult patients with ≥2 diagnoses of NVAF, and without valvular disease. Total all-cause healthcare costs at 1 year were stratified by stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc) and bleeding (HAS-BLED) risk scores. Study data was extracted in the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (Commercial Database) and the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefits Database (Medicare Supplemental Database).

Results: Mean all-cause 1 year cost of care based on stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc) varied from $15,703 to $59,163 for previously diagnosed and $25,992 to $62,458 for newly diagnosed NVAF. Similarly, mean cost varied base on bleeding risk (HAS-BLED) for previously and newly diagnosed NVAF from $17,950 to $57,029 and $26,356 to $67,104 respectively.

Conclusion: NVAF patients accrue variable healthcare costs. Stroke and bleeding risk should be taken into account during the creation of NVAF payment bundles.

Keywords: Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation; bundled payments; health costs; major bleeding; stroke.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Anticoagulants* / economics
  • Anticoagulants* / therapeutic use
  • Atrial Fibrillation* / complications
  • Atrial Fibrillation* / drug therapy
  • Atrial Fibrillation* / economics
  • Atrial Fibrillation* / epidemiology
  • Comorbidity
  • Costs and Cost Analysis / methods
  • Costs and Cost Analysis / statistics & numerical data
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Hemorrhage* / chemically induced
  • Hemorrhage* / economics
  • Hemorrhage* / epidemiology
  • Hemorrhage* / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Medicare / statistics & numerical data
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Care Bundles* / economics
  • Patient Care Bundles* / methods
  • Research Design
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Stroke* / epidemiology
  • Stroke* / etiology
  • Stroke* / prevention & control
  • United States / epidemiology

Substances

  • Anticoagulants