Assessment of third molar development on dental radiograms is one of the most commonly used methods of forensic age estimation. Despite widespread use and numerous studies, there is a paucity of aggregated data on how well a fully mature third molar identifies adulthood (> 18 years), the most important threshold in a medicolegal context. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. A total of 1229 studies were screened, and 82 studies were assessed for inclusion. Twenty-four studies, with a pooled cohort of 19,690 individuals, presented true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), and false negative (FN) outcomes, enabling meta-analysis. The outcomes were based on using the third molar in the fully mature stage as a diagnostic test to indicate age 18 years or above. The false positive rate (fall-out/1-specificity) was 3.1% (95% CI 2.1-4.6%), and the true positive rate (recall/sensitivity) was 51% (95% CI 44-58%). Diagnostic accuracy was 71%. These findings, while reassuring in terms of the low false positive rate, highlight the need for complementary age estimation methods to avoid a significant number of false negatives.
Keywords: Age assessment; Dental age; Forensic age estimation; Third molar mineralization.