Non-Invasive Prediction of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Am J Gastroenterol. 2019 Mar;114(3):446-452. doi: 10.1038/s41395-018-0265-7.

Abstract

Background: Baveno-VI guidelines recommend that patients with compensated cirrhosis with liver stiffness by transient elastography (LSM-TE) <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/mm(3) do not need an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) to screen for varices, since the risk of having varices needing treatment (VNT) is <5%. It remains uncertain if this tool can be used in patients with cholestatic liver diseases (ChLDs): primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). These patients may have a pre-sinusoidal component of portal hypertension that could affect the performance of this rule. In this study we evaluated the performance of Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI (LSM-TE <25 kPa and platelets >110,000/mm(3)), and other criteria in predicting the absence of VNT.

Methods: This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in four referral hospitals. We retrospectively analyzed data from 227 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to PBC (n = 147) and PSC (n = 80) that had paired EGD and LSM-TE. We calculated false negative rate (FNR) and number of saved endoscopies for each prediction rule.

Results: Prevalence of VNT was 13%. Baveno-VI criteria had a 0% FNR in PBC and PSC, saving 39 and 30% of EGDs, respectively. In PBC the other LSM-TE-based criteria resulted in FNRs >5%. In PSC the expanded Baveno criteria had an adequate performance. In both conditions LSM-TE-independent criteria resulted in an acceptable FNR but saved less EGDs.

Conclusions: Baveno-VI criteria can be applied in patients with cACLD due to ChLDs, which would result in saving 30-40% of EGDs. Expanded criteria in PBC would lead to FNRs >5%.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Cholangitis, Sclerosing / blood
  • Cholangitis, Sclerosing / complications
  • Cholangitis, Sclerosing / diagnostic imaging*
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Elasticity Imaging Techniques
  • Endoscopy, Digestive System
  • Esophageal and Gastric Varices / diagnosis
  • Esophageal and Gastric Varices / epidemiology*
  • Esophageal and Gastric Varices / etiology
  • Esophageal and Gastric Varices / therapy
  • False Negative Reactions
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver / diagnostic imaging
  • Liver Cirrhosis / blood
  • Liver Cirrhosis / complications
  • Liver Cirrhosis / diagnostic imaging*
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / blood
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / complications
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / diagnostic imaging*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Platelet Count
  • Prevalence
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment