Purpose: To compare the risk of neoplastic progression by germline mutation status versus family history without a known germline mutation (familial risk) among individuals with an increased risk for pancreatic cancer who are undergoing surveillance.
Methods: Of 464 high-risk individuals in the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program at Johns Hopkins Hospital who were undergoing pancreatic surveillance, 119 had a known deleterious germline mutation in a pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene; 345 met family history criteria for pancreatic surveillance but were not known to harbor a germline mutation. We used next-generation sequencing to identify previously unrecognized germline mutations among these 345 individuals. We compared the development of pancreatic cancer, high-grade dysplasia, or clinically worrisome features, adjusting for competing mortality, among all germline mutation carriers with the risk of progression in a cohort without a known germline mutation.
Results: Fifteen (4.3%) of 345 individuals classified as having familial risk had a previously unrecognized pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene mutation (nine that involved ATM, two BRCA2, one BRCA1, one PALB2, one TP53, and one CPA1). The cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer, high-grade dysplasia, or worrisome features on pancreatic imaging was significantly higher in the germline mutation risk group (n = 134) than in the familial risk group (n = 330 [for pancreatic cancer, hazard ratio, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.0 to 8.18; P = .05]).
Conclusion: The cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer is significantly higher among individuals with an identifiable deleterious germline mutation in a pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene than it is among individuals with a strong family history but no identified mutation. Gene testing of individuals who meet criteria for pancreatic surveillance on the basis of their family history may better define those most at risk for neoplastic progression.