Long-term simulations of radiocesium discharge in watershed with improved radioesium wash-off model: Applying the model to Abukuma River basin of Fukushima

Abstract

In order to simulate the long-term migration and distribution of radiocesium after the Fukushima accident, a numerical model, Soil and Cesium Transport (SACT) based on universal soil loss equation (USLE), has been developed in previous studies. Although the SACT model's results on radiocesium discharge in 2011 are in reasonable agreement with field measurements, it fails to capture the sharp decrease of radiocesium flux in subsequent years, especially in the case of Abukuma River. The present work aims to improve SACT by implementing new processes for radiocesium wash-off, in which the vertical migration, and long-term fixation of radiocesium in soil are taken in to account. To understand the vertical migration process, depth profile measurement results between 2011 and 2016 have been fitted by different distribution functions and analyzed statistically. A conceptual model has been developed to describe results from recent sorption experiments, which support long-term fixation of radiocesium in soil particles. For validation purpose, the annual average radiocesium concentration in sediments discharged from Abukuma river has been evaluated from measurement data. With these improvements, the new SACT model could achieve much better agreement with the measurement results without parameter tuning.