Regulatory guidelines describe the use of estimands in designing and conducting clinical trials. Estimands ensure alignment of the objectives with the design, conduct and analysis of a trial. An estimand is defined by four inter-related attributes: the population of interest, the variable (endpoint) of interest, the way intercurrent events are handled and the population level summary. A trial may employ multiple estimands to evaluate treatment effects from different perspectives in order to address different scientific questions. As estimands may be an unfamiliar concept for many clinicians treating diabetes, this paper reviews the estimand concept and uses the PIONEER 1 phase 3a clinical trial, which investigated the efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide vs placebo, as an example of the way in which estimands can be implemented and interpreted. In the PIONEER 1 trial, two estimands were employed for each efficacy endpoint and were labelled as: (a) the treatment policy estimand, used to assess the treatment effect regardless of use of rescue medication or discontinuation of trial product, and provides a broad perspective of the treatment effect in the population of patients with type 2 diabetes in clinical practice; and (b) the trial product estimand, used to assess the treatment effect if all patients had continued to use trial product for the planned duration of the trial without rescue medication, thereby providing information on the anticipated treatment effect of the medication. Both approaches are complementary to understanding the effect of the studied treatments.
Keywords: Diabetes; GLP-1 receptor agonists; PIONEER; estimand; oral semaglutide; regulatory guidance.
© 2019 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.