A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals

Nat Commun. 2019 Aug 20;10(1):3346. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-11311-9.

Abstract

Predicting longer-term mortality risk requires collection of clinical data, which is often cumbersome. Therefore, we use a well-standardized metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality in the circulation of 44,168 individuals (age at baseline 18-109), of whom 5512 died during follow-up. We apply a stepwise (forward-backward) procedure based on meta-analysis results and identify 14 circulating biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality. Overall, these associations are similar in men and women and across different age strata. We subsequently show that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex (C-statistic = 0.837 and 0.830, respectively) is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality (C-statistic = 0.772 and 0.790, respectively). The use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Metabolome
  • Metabolomics / methods*
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality*
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis*
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Biomarkers