Aging-associated fall-risk assessment is crucial for fall prevention. Thus, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to predict fall-risk following an unexpected over-ground slip perturbation based on normal gait pattern in healthy older adults. 112 healthy older adults who experienced a novel slip in a safe laboratory environment were included. Their slip trial and natural walking trial immediately prior to it were analyzed. To identify the best fall-risk predictive model, gait related variables including step length, segment angles, center of mass state, and ground reaction force (GRF) were determined and inputted into a stepwise logistic regression. The optimal slip-induced fall prediction model was based on the right thigh angle at slipping foot touchdown (TD), the maximum GRF of the slipping limb after TD, and the momentum change from TD to recovery foot liftoff (LO), with an overall prediction accuracy of 75.9%, predicting 74.5% of falls (sensitivity) and 77.2% of recoveries (specificity). Conversely, a model based on clinical and demographic measures predicted 78.2% of falls and 47.4% of recoveries, resulting in a much lower overall accuracy of 62.5%. The fall-risk model based on normal gait pattern which was developed for slip-induced perturbations in healthy older adults was able to provide a high predictive accuracy. This information could provide insight about the ideal normal gait measures which could be used to contribute towards development of therapeutic strategies related to dynamic balance and fall prevention to enhance preventive interventions in populations with high-risk for slip-induced falls.
Keywords: Fall prediction model; Fall-risk; Gait pattern; Slip.
Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.