Outcome of status epilepticus and the predictive value of the EMSE and STESS scores: A prospective study

Abstract

Purpose: To assess the short-term outcome of status epilepticus (SE) and test the Epidemiology-based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus (EMSE) and the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) performance in outcome prediction.

Methods: Consecutive adults with SE in the Kuopio University Hospital emergency department were recruited between March 23 and December 31, 2015. The one-month outcome was assessed by a combined phone interview and medical record review using the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended. The prognostic performance of the EMSE-EAC (EMSE using the combination of etiology, age and comorbidity) and STESS were statistically evaluated.

Results: We recorded 151 SE episodes in 137 patients, of whom 47 had a first-time epileptic event (seizure or SE). Of the SE episodes, 9.0% resulted in death, 31.6% in functional decline. For mortality prediction, the AUCs of the EMSE-EAC and STESS were 0.790 (95% CI: 0.633-0.947) and 0.736 (95% CI: 0.559-0.914), respectively. The optimal cutoff points were ≥ 34 for the EMSE-EAC and ≥ 4 for STESS. Negative predictive values for mortality using the EMSE-EAC-34 and STESS-4 were 97.5% and 96.7%, respectively. For functional decline prediction, the EMSE-EAC yielded statistically insignificant results, the STESS performance was poor (AUC = 0.621, 95% CI: 0.519-0.724).

Conclusions: Over 40% of SE patients suffer adverse outcomes. The EMSE-EAC and STESS are useful in short-term mortality prediction, with a high negative predictive value. The optimized cutoff points for the EMSE-EAC and STESS were ≥ 34 and ≥ 4 for cohort, respectively.

Keywords: Comorbidity; GOSE; Mortality; Prediction; Prognosis; Seizure.