Predictive Models for Pulmonary Artery Size in Fontan Patients

Abstract

We developed models of pulmonary artery (PA) size in Fontan patients as a function of age and body surface area (BSA) using linear regression and breakpoint analyses based on data from 43 Fontan patients divided into two groups: the extracardiac conduit (ECC) group (n = 24) and the non-ECC group (n = 19). Model predictions were compared against those of a non-Fontan control group (n = 18) and published literature. We observed strong positive correlations of the mean PA diameter with BSA (r = 0.9, p < 0.05) and age (r = 0.88, p < 0.05) in the ECC group. The absolute percentage differences between our BSA and age model predictions against published literature were less than 16% and 20%, respectively. Predicted PA size for Fontan patients was consistently smaller than the control group. These models may serve as useful references for clinicians and be utilized to construct 3D anatomic models that correspond to patient body size or age.

Keywords: Fontan geometry; Predictive models; Pulmonary artery index; Regression analysis; Univentricular physiology.