Crop growth, hydrology, and water quality dynamics in agricultural fields across the Western Lake Erie Basin: Multi-site verification of the Nutrient Tracking Tool (NTT)

Abstract

Agricultural field- and watershed-scale water quality models are used to assess the potential impact of management practices to reduce nutrient and sediment exports. However, observed data are often not available to calibrate and verify these models. Three years of data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service's 12 paired edge-of-field sites in northwest Ohio were used to calibrate and validate the Nutrient Tracking Tool. The goal of this study was to identify a single optimal parameter set for the Nutrient Tracking Tool in simulating annual crop yields, water balance, and nutrient loads across the Western Lake Erie Basin. A multi-site and multi-objective auto-calibration subroutine was developed in R to perform model calibration across the edge-of-field sites. The statistical metrics and evaluation criteria used in comparing the simulated results with the observed data were: Cohen's D Effect Size (Cohen's D < 0.20) and Percent bias (PBIAS ± 10% for crop yields, subsurface (tile) discharge, and surface runoff and ± 25% for dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and nitrate‑nitrogen (nitrate-N) in tile discharge, and DRP, particulate phosphorus, and nitrate-N in surface runoff). In both calibration and validation, the Cohen's D and PBIAS for annual crop yields, tile discharge, surface runoff, DRP, particulate P, and nitrate-N showed that the average simulated results were similar to the average observed values for each variable. The calibrated model simulated well the annual averages of crop yields, flows, and nutrient losses across fields. The tile drainage and phosphorus transport subroutines in the Nutrient Tracking Tool should be further improved to better simulate the dynamics of discharge and phosphorus transport through subsurface drainage. Stakeholders can use the verified model to evaluate the effectiveness of conservation practices in improving the water quality across the Western Lake Erie Basin.

Keywords: Best management practices; Crop yields; Dissolved reactive phosphorus; Nutrient load reductions; Subsurface drainage systems.