Forecasting Opioid Use Disorder at 25 Years of Age in 16-Year-Old Adolescents

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of detecting 16-year-old male (n = 465) and female (n = 162) youths who subsequently manifest opioid use disorder (OUD) at 25 years of age. We hypothesized that the combined measures of 2 components of etiology, heritable risk, and substance use, accurately detect youths who develop OUD.

Study design: Heritable risk was measured by the transmissible liability index (TLI). Severity of the prodrome presaging OUD was quantified by the revised Drug Use Screening Inventory containing the consumption frequency index (CFI) documenting substance use events during the past month and the overall problem density (OPD) score indicating co-occurring biopsychosocial problems. Diagnosis of OUD was formulated by a clinical committee based on results of the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition in conjunction with medical and social history records.

Results: Bivariate analysis shows that the TLI, CFI, and OPD scores at 16 years of age predict OUD at 25 years. Multivariate modeling indicates that the TLI combined with the CFI predict OUD with 86% accuracy (sensitivity = 87%; specificity = 62%). The TLI and CFI at 16 years of age mediate the association between parental substance use disorder and OUD in offspring at 25 years of age, indicating that these measures respectively evaluate risk and prodrome.

Conclusions: These results demonstrate the feasibility of identifying youths requiring intervention to prevent OUD.

Keywords: drug dependence; forecasting addiction; opioids; phenotyping; risk screening.