Systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 130 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg has been defined as stage I hypertension by the 2017 Hypertension Clinical Practice Guidelines. Drug treatment is recommended for stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease in the 2017 Hypertension Clinical Practice Guidelines but not in the 2018 Chinese guidelines. However, the cost-effectiveness of drug treatment among this subgroup of Chinese patients is unclear. This study developed a microsimulation model to compare costs and effectiveness of drug treatment and nondrug treatment for the subgroup of stage I hypertensive patients over a lifetime horizon from a government affordability perspective. Event rates of mortality and cardiovascular complications were estimated from 3 cohorts in the Chinese population. Costs and health utilities were obtained from the national statistics report and published literature. The model predicted that drug treatment generated quality-adjusted life-years of 13.52 and associated with expected costs of $6825 in comparison with 13.81 and $7328 produced by nondrug treatment over a lifetime horizon among stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $8836/quality-adjusted life-year (the GDP per capita in 2017), drug treatment only had a 1.8% probability of being cost-effective compared with nondrug treatment after 10 000 probabilistic simulations. Sensitivity analysis of treatment costs, benefits expected from treatment, health utilities, and discount rates did not change the results. Our results suggested that drug treatment was not cost-effective compared with nondrug treatment for stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease in China.
Keywords: American Heart Association; Asian continental ancestry group; cost-benefit analysis; quality-adjusted life-years.