Identifying influential neighbors in social networks and venue affiliations among young MSM: a data science approach to predict HIV infection

Abstract

Objective: Young MSM (YMSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV infection in the United States and their risks of acquiring HIV may be shaped by complex multilayer social networks. These networks are formed through not only direct contact with social/sex partners but also indirect anonymous contacts encountered when attending social venues. We introduced a new application of a state-of-the-art graph-based deep learning method to predict HIV infection that can identify influential neighbors within these multiple network contexts.

Design and methods: We used empirical network data among YMSM aged 16-29 years old collected from Houston and Chicago in the United States between 2014 and 2016. A computational framework GAT-HIV (Graph Attention Networks for HIV) was proposed to predict HIV infections by identifying influential neighbors within social networks. These networks were formed by multiple relations constituted of social/sex partners and shared venue attendances, and using individual-level variables. Further, GAT-HIV was extended to combine multiple social networks using multigraph GAT methods. A visualization tool was also developed to highlight influential network members for each individual within the multiple social networks.

Results: The multigraph GAT-HIV models obtained average AUC values of 0.776 and 0.824 for Chicago and Houston, respectively, performing better than empirical predictive models (e.g. AUCs of random forest: 0.758 and 0.798). GAT-HIV on single networks also delivered promising prediction performances.

Conclusion: The proposed methods provide a comprehensive and interpretable framework for graph-based modeling that may inform effective HIV prevention intervention strategies among populations most vulnerable to HIV.