Aim: To develop a prediction model to estimate the chances of live birth over multiple cycles of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment.
Methods: A retrospective cohort study was launched in three reproductive centers including 10 824 couples who received 14 106 treatment cycles with known pregnancy outcomes by the end of 2016. Discrete time logistic regression was used to establish the model and a nomogram was developed to predict the chance of live birth on plain paper-based final predictors.
Results: Among 10 824 couples, 5809 (53.7%) ended up with a live birth with several successive transplant cycles. What's more, we found that younger female age (p < 0.001), smaller cycle number (p < 0.001), female body mass index (p < 0.001), male factor (p < 0.001), ovulation disorder (p = 0.006), and higher endometrial thickness (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased live birth rate. Discrimination of the model expressed by area under the curve (AUC) was 0.66.
Conclusion: Our study will help shape couples' expectations of their ART outcome, allowing them to plan their treatments more efficiently and prepare emotionally and financially.
Keywords: in vitro fertilization (IVF); intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI); live birth rate; multivariable model; predictors.
© 2021 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.