Global mangrove forests have exhibited distinct changes in the past decades owing to anthropogenic activities, with land-use pressure being among the main causes of mangrove loss. Thus, understanding the inherent conflicts between conservation/restoration and land-use demands is fundamental for mangrove management. To predict how land-use changes will drive the spatiotemporal patterns of mangrove habitats, a novel integrated framework coupling MaxEnt and Dyna-CLUE modeling was proposed. The coupled model can identify suitable mangrove afforestation habitats and predict the impact of land-use change on potential mangrove habitats. In this study, the model was used to predict the mangrove habitat change in 2030 in the province with the most mangrove forests in China. The potential suitable habitat of 14 mangrove species under three coastal land-use scenarios were mapped using the coupled model. Under the current trend scenario, only 41.2% of the existing wetland would be retained, whereas the potential distribution area of all the mangrove species will decrease by an average of 30%. Under the sustainable development and ecological protection scenarios, the mangrove habitat could be increased by 11% to 61%, depending on the species. Different mangrove species showed varied sensitivity to the improved land-use policies, with several species being harder to restore than others, even under aggressive protection and restoration policies. The combined use of both MaxEnt and Dyna-CLUE models proved complementary and offered insights into the impacts of different land-use policies on the spatiotemporal change of mangrove habitats.
Keywords: Conservation strategy; Guangdong Province; Mangrove afforestation; Policy scenario; Restoration potential.
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