A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries

Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 8;11(1):14108. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93415-1.

Abstract

While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID-19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model-based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large-scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence-based toolkit-to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Developing Countries*
  • Humans
  • Income
  • Quarantine / methods*