Bayesian spatial analysis of crash severity data with the INLA approach: Assessment of different identification constraints

Abstract

Multinomial logit models have been widely used in the analysis of categorical crash data. When the regional information of the data is available, the dependence structure needs to be incorporated into the model to accommodate for spatial heterogeneity. We consider a Bayesian multinomial structured additive regression model to analyze categorical spatial crash data and compare its performance with a fractional split multinomial model. We use the multinomial-Poisson transformation to apply the integrated nested Laplace approximation method for fitting the proposed model efficiently and fast. Moreover, we consider two different types of identifiability constraints to deal with the inherent identifiability problem of the multinomial models. The proposed models are studied through simulated examples and applied to a road traffic crash dataset from Mazandaran province, Iran.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; Crash data; Fractional split multinomial model; INLA; Identifiability; Multinomial-Poisson transformation; Spatial multinomial model.