Objective: Knowledge of factors that predict alcohol use disorder (AUD) recurrence or the subsequent switching to a different substance use disorder (SUD) after initial AUD recovery is especially crucial for preventive efforts that seek to alter life courses dominated by problematic substance use. This study evaluated whether the proportions (or densities) of first-degree relatives with AUD and non-alcohol substance use disorder (NASUD) histories predicted AUD recurrence or a new NASUD onset in a family member (i.e., proband) following initial AUD episode recovery.
Method: This research is based on a prospective and multigenerational data set collected as part of the Oregon Adolescent Depression Project (OADP). The initial proband cohort was selected randomly from nine high schools in western Oregon. The sample for this research consisted of OADP probands with histories of AUD who recovered from their first AUD episode by age 30 (n = 244). Lifetime SUD histories were also assessed for first-degree adult relatives of probands (n = 790).
Results: In unadjusted and partially adjusted analyses, family densities of AUD predicted AUD recurrence among probands, and family densities of NASUDs predicted the onset of a new NASUD following first-episode AUD recovery. In fully adjusted analyses, the effect for AUD family histories on proband AUD recurrence remained, whereas the effect for family NASUD histories on new NASUD emergence was not maintained.
Conclusions: Family SUD histories have predictive relevance for the course of AUD following initial recovery as well as some specificity for the type of SUD recurrence subsequently experienced.