Pooled testing of traced contacts under superspreading dynamics

PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Mar 28;18(3):e1010008. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010008. eCollection 2022 Mar.

Abstract

Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing pooled testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pooled testing method, Dorfman's method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple pooled testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using Dorfman's method. Our method provides the greatest competitive advantage when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small, or the distribution of secondary infections is highly overdispersed. Moreover, it maintains this competitive advantage under imperfect contact tracing and significant levels of dilution.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Contact Tracing
  • Humans
  • Pandemics*

Grants and funding

This project has received funding (grant recipient: M.G.-R.) from the European Research Council (ERC) (https://erc.europa.eu/) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 945719). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.