Background and aims: Diabetes is associated with advanced liver disease and predicts mortality regardless of the primary aetiology of the liver disease. Even a family history of diabetes has been linked to advanced liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the fraction of liver-related outcomes in the general population that are attributable to diabetes remains unclear.
Methods: The population attributable fraction (PAF) of diabetes for liver disease as a time-dependent exposure was estimated in the Finnish FINRISK study (n = 28 787) and the British Whitehall II study (n = 7855). We also assessed the predictive ability of a family history of diabetes for liver-related outcomes. Incident diabetes data were from drug purchase/reimbursement and healthcare registries (FINRISK) or follow-up examinations (Whitehall II). Incident severe liver outcomes were identified through linkage with national healthcare registries.
Results: Diabetes was associated with a two-fold risk of liver-related outcomes in both the FINRISK (HR, 1.92; p < .001) and Whitehall II (HR, 2.37; p < .001) cohorts, and this remained significant after adjusting for multiple confounders. PAF analyses demonstrated that diabetes explained 12-14% of the risk for severe liver-related outcomes after 10 and 20 years of follow-up. Also, maternal diabetes increased the risk of liver-related outcomes in the FINRISK (HR, 1.43; p = .044) and Whitehall II (HR, 2.04; p = .051) cohorts.
Conclusion: Approximately 12%-14% of severe liver-related outcomes are attributable to diabetes at the population level. The association between maternal diabetes and liver disease might suggest a mitochondrial genetic mechanism.
Keywords: cirrhosis; hepatology; hyperglycaemia.
© 2022 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.