Background: The likelihood of regaining independent walking after stroke influences rehabilitation and hospital discharge planning.
Objective: This study aimed to develop and internally validate a tool to predict whether and when a patient will walk independently in the first 6 months post-stroke.
Methods: Adults with stroke were recruited if they had new lower limb weakness and were unable to walk independently. Clinical assessments were completed one week post-stroke. The primary outcome was time post-stroke by which independent walking (Functional Ambulation Category score ≥ 4) was achieved. Cox hazard regression identified predictors for achieving independent walking by 4, 6, 9, 16, or 26 weeks post-stroke. The cut-off and weighting for each predictor was determined using β-coefficients. Predictors were assigned a score and summed for a final TWIST score. The probability of achieving independent walking at each time point for each TWIST score was calculated.
Results: We included 93 participants (36 women, median age 71 years). Age < 80 years, knee extension strength Medical Research Council grade ≥ 3/5, and Berg Balance Test < 6, 6 to 15, or ≥ 16/56, predicted independent walking and were combined to form the TWIST prediction tool. The TWIST prediction tool was at least 83% accurate for all time points.
Conclusions: The TWIST tool combines routine bedside tests at one week post-stroke to accurately predict the probability of an individual patient achieving independent walking by 4, 6, 9, 16, or 26 weeks post-stroke. If externally validated, the TWIST prediction tool may benefit patients and clinicians by informing rehabilitation decisions and discharge planning.
Keywords: prediction; recovery; rehabilitation; stroke; walking.