Objective In myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), the CTG repeat size in the dystrophia myotonica protein kinase gene has been shown to correlate with disease severity and is a potential predictive marker for respiratory decline. However, genetic testing can be challenging in some clinical situations. We developed a simple formula for estimating the CTG repeat size using a single spirometry test in patients with DM1. Methods In this single-center retrospective study, we reviewed 50 consecutive patients with genetically confirmed DM1 whose follow-up visits were at our hospital. The patients were randomly assigned to training and test analysis subsets. By applying a linear mixed model to the longitudinal spirometry results of the training set, we calculated the fixed effects on the annual respiratory decline. Subsequently, we derived a prediction formula to calculate the repeat size that incorporated %vital capacity (%VC) and the patient's age at the time of the spirometry evaluation; the results were validated by the test set. Results A total of 157 spirometry tests were recorded. The fixed effects on the annual %VC decline were <img align="middle" src="./Graphics/abst-61_2281_1.jpg"/>=-0.90. The derived formula [repeat size=-16.8× (age+%VC/0.90) +2663] had a moderate predictive performance with a mean coefficient of determination <img align="middle" src="./Graphics/abst-61_2281_2.jpg"/> of 0.41. Conclusion The CTG repeat size in patients with DM1 can be potentially predicted using a simple formula based on a single spirometry test conducted at any time over the disease course. It can be useful as a supportive tool for advance care planning when genetic testing is not available.
Keywords: CTG repeat; linear mixed model; myotonic dystrophy type 1; prediction; respiratory decline.