Background and aims: The Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk score was recently shown to predict future advanced liver disease in the general population. We here investigated the impact of individual CLivD-score changes over time.
Methods: Participants of both phase 3 (baseline, 1991-1994) and phase 5 (follow-up, 1997-1999) examinations of the Whitehall II study were followed for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, cancer, death) until December 2019 through linkage with electronic healthcare registers. The CLivD score, its modifiable components (alcohol use, waist-hip ratio [WHR], diabetes, and smoking), and their individual changes were studied.
Results: Among 6590 adults (mean age 50 years, 30% women) with a median 21-year follow-up, there were 80 liver outcomes. A rise in the CLivD score between baseline and follow-up examinations significantly increased the risk for liver-related outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.60), more so in subjects with baseline intermediate-high CLivD scores (HR 2.4 for a CLivD-change) compared to minimal-low CLivD scores. Adverse changes over time in alcohol use and WHR, and new-onset diabetes also predicted liver outcomes. In contrast to WHR, changes in body weight (kg) showed a U-shaped association with liver outcomes.
Conclusions: A change in the CLivD score over time corresponds to a true change in the risk for liver-related outcomes, suggesting the usefulness of the CLivD score for assessing response to liver-directed lifestyle interventions. Changes in WHR predicted liver outcomes better than changes in body weight or waist circumference, independent of body mass index, supporting the WHR in assessing risk for future liver disease.
Keywords: CLivD; alcohol; cirrhosis; fibrosis; obesity.