Introduction: Weight gain is a risk factor for poor clinical outcomes following kidney transplantation. Research Question: This study's aim was a first testing of 2 models to identify patients early after kidney transplantation who are at risk for weight gain and increase in adipose tissue mass in the first year after kidney transplantation. Design: The literature-based models were evaluated on longitudinal data of 88, respectively 79 kidney transplant recipients via ordinary and Firth regression, using gains ≥ 5% in weight and adipose tissue mass respectively as primary and secondary endpoints. Results: The models included physical activity, smoking cessation at time of kidney transplantation, self-reported health status, depressive symptomatology, gender, age, education, baseline body mass index and baseline trunk fat as predictors. Area under the curve was 0.797 (95%-CI 0.702 to 0.893) for the weight model and 0.767 (95%-CI 0.656 to 0.878) for the adipose tissue mass model-showing good, respectively fair discriminative ability. For weight gain ≥ 5%, main risk factors were smoking cessation at time of transplantation (OR 16.425, 95%-CI 1.737-155.288) and better self-reported baseline health state (OR 1.068 for each 1-unit increase, 95%-CI 1.012-1.128). For the adipose tissue mass gain ≥ 5%, main risk factor was overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 25) at baseline (odds ratio 7.659, 95%-CI 1.789-32.789). Conclusions: The models have potential to assess patients' risk for weight or adipose tissue mass gain during the year after transplantation, but further testing is needed before implementation in clinical practice.
Keywords: addictive; behavior; cardiovascular disease; clinical outcomes; depression; exercise outcomes; nutrition; performance improvement; quality; quality of life; quantitative methods; regression; research.