Global COVID-19 case fatality rates influenced by inequalities in human development and vaccination rates

Kaamel Nuhu; Kamal Humagain; Genevieve Alorbi; Sabena Thomas; Alexis Blavos; Vierne Placide

doi:10.1007/s44155-022-00022-0

Global COVID-19 case fatality rates influenced by inequalities in human development and vaccination rates

Discov Soc Sci Health. 2022;2(1):20. doi: 10.1007/s44155-022-00022-0. Epub 2022 Nov 1.

Authors

Kaamel Nuhu¹, Kamal Humagain², Genevieve Alorbi³, Sabena Thomas⁴, Alexis Blavos¹, Vierne Placide¹

Affiliations

¹ Health Department, State University of New York at Cortland, Cortland, USA.
² Geology Department, State University of New York at Potsdam, Potsdam, USA.
³ Economics Department, State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego, USA.
⁴ College of Nursing and Public Health, Adelphi University, Garden City, USA.

Abstract

Aim: COVID-19 has exerted distress on virtually every aspect of human life with disproportionate mortality burdens on older individuals and those with underlying medical conditions. Variations in COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates (CFRs) across countries have incited a growing research interest regarding the effect of social factors on COVID-19 case-loads and fatality rates. We investigated the effect of population median age, inequalities in human development, healthcare capacity, and pandemic mitigation indicators on country-specific COVID-19 CFRs across countries and regions.

Subject and methods: Using population secondary data from multiple sources, we conducted a cross-sectional study and used regional analysis to compare regional differences in COVID-19 CFRs as influenced by the selected indicators.

Results: The analysis revealed wide variations in COVID-19 CFRs and the selected indicators across countries and regions. Mean CFR was highest for South America at 1.973% (± 0.742) and lowest for Oceania at 0.264% (± 0.107), while the Africa sub-region recorded the lowest scores for pandemic preparedness, vaccination rate, and other indicators. Population Median Age [0.073 (0.033 0.113)], Vaccination Rate [-3.3389 (-5.570.033 -1.208)], and Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) [-0.014 (-0.023 -0.004)] emerged as statistically significant predictors of COVID-19 CFR, with directions indicating increasing Population Median Age, higher inequalities in human development and low vaccination rate are predictive of higher fatalities from COVID-19.

Conclusion: Regional differences in COVID-19 CFR may be influenced by underlying differences in sociodemographic and pandemic mitigation indicators. Populations with wide social inequalities, increased population Median Age and low vaccination rates are more likely to suffer higher fatalities from COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case fatality rates; Healthcare capacity; Inequalities in human development; Pandemic mitigation; Population median age.