Post-colonoscopy cancer rate at a tertiary referral hospital in Australia: A data linkage analysis

Abstract

Background and aim: Colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosed following a cancer-negative colonoscopy is termed as post-colonoscopy CRC (PCCRC). The World Endoscopy Organization has recently standardized the definition of PCCRC-3Y (CRC developing within 3 years of a cancer-negative colonoscopy). In the present study, we sought to assess PCCRC-3Y rate, perform root-cause analyses, and identify factors associated with development of PCCRC at a tertiary referral hospital in Australia.

Methods: All patients undergoing colonoscopy from 2011 to 2018 were matched to a population-based cancer register. PCCRC-3Y rate was assessed for years 2011-2015. All PCCRC cases that developed within 6-48 months after a cancer-negative colonoscopy underwent root-cause analyses. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data.

Results: Among 17 828 patients undergoing colonoscopy, 367 CRC cases were diagnosed during the study period. This included nine PCCRC cases, which developed at a median of 14 months (range 7-34 months) after cancer-negative colonoscopy. The PCCRC-3Y rate for years 2011-2015 was 2.16% (95% CI 0.91-5.15). All nine PCCRC cases were moderately or poorly differentiated adenocarcinomas; seven of nine were early-stage CRC (stages I and II) and six of nine probably represented missed lesions at index colonoscopy despite an apparently adequate examination. History of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (odds ratio [OR] 21.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-103.7, P < 0.001) and diverticulosis (OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.4-20.5, P = 0.01) were significantly associated with development of missed CRC.

Conclusions: In our tertiary referral colonoscopy cohort, PCCRC-3Y rate was 2.16% (95% CI 0.91-5.15). IBD and diverticulosis were significantly associated with risk of PCCRC. The majority of PCCRC lesions were likely missed at index colonoscopy, despite an apparently adequate examination.

Keywords: adenocarcinoma; colonoscopy; colorectal neoplasms; inflammatory bowel diseases; quality improvement; root-cause analyses; surveillance.