Altered function and gene regulation of pancreatic islet beta cells is a hallmark of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms driving T2D is still missing. Here we integrate information from measurements of chromatin activity, gene expression and function in single beta cells with genetic association data to identify disease-causal gene regulatory changes in T2D. Using machine learning on chromatin accessibility data from 34 non-diabetic, pre-T2D and T2D donors, we robustly identify two transcriptionally and functionally distinct beta cell subtypes that undergo an abundance shift in T2D. Subtype-defining active chromatin is enriched for T2D risk variants, suggesting a causal contribution of subtype identity to T2D. Both subtypes exhibit activation of a stress-response transcriptional program and functional impairment in T2D, which is likely induced by the T2D-associated metabolic environment. Our findings demonstrate the power of multimodal single-cell measurements combined with machine learning for identifying mechanisms of complex diseases.