Evaluation of a modified emergency surgical acuity score in predicting operative and non-operative mortality and morbidity in an acute surgical unit

Abstract

Background: Emergency general surgery (EGS) patients have an increased risk of mortality and morbidity compared to other surgical patients. Limited risk assessment tools exist for use in both operative and non-operative EGS patients. We assessed the accuracy of a modified Emergency Surgical Acuity Score (mESAS) in EGS patients at our institution.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study from an acute surgical unit at a tertiary referral hospital was performed. Primary endpoints assessed included death before discharge, length of stay (LOS) >5 days and unplanned readmission within 28 days. Operative and non-operative patients were analysed separately. Validation was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), Brier score and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: A total of 1763 admissions between March 2018 and June 2021 were included for analysis. The mESAS was an accurate predictor of both death before discharge (AUROC 0.979, Brier score 0.007, Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.981) and LOS >5 days (0.787, 0.104, and 0.253, respectively). The mESAS was less accurate in predicting readmission within 28 days (0.639, 0.040, and 0.887, respectively). The mESAS retained its predictive ability for death before discharge and LOS >5 days in the split cohort analysis.

Conclusion: This study is the first to validate a modified ESAS in a non-operatively managed EGS population internationally and the first to validate the mESAS in Australia. The mESAS accurately predicts death before discharge and prolonged LOS for all EGS patients, providing a highly useful tool for surgeons and EGS units worldwide.

Keywords: emergency surgery; morbidity; mortality; risk calculator.