A novel climate and health decision support platform: Approach, outputs, and policy considerations

Jeremy J Hess; Timothy J Sheehan; Alyssa Miller; Rad Cunningham; Nicole A Errett; Tania Busch Isaksen; Jason Vogel; Kristie L Ebi

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2023.116530

A novel climate and health decision support platform: Approach, outputs, and policy considerations

Environ Res. 2023 Oct 1:234:116530. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116530. Epub 2023 Jun 30.

Authors

Jeremy J Hess¹, Timothy J Sheehan², Alyssa Miller², Rad Cunningham³, Nicole A Errett², Tania Busch Isaksen², Jason Vogel⁴, Kristie L Ebi⁵

Affiliations

¹ Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: jjhess@uw.edu.
² Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
³ Washington State Department of Health, Olympia, WA, USA.
⁴ Climate Impacts Group, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁵ Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

PMID: 37394172
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116530

Abstract

Background: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasingly apparent and the need for adaptation activities is pressing. Risks, drivers, and decision contexts vary significantly by location, and high-resolution, place-based information is needed to support decision analysis and risk reduction efforts at scale.

Methods: Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework, we developed a causal pathway linking heat with a composite outcome of heat-related morbidity and mortality. We used an existing systematic literature review to identify variables for inclusion and the authors' expert judgment to determine variable combinations in a hierarchical model. We parameterized the model for Washington state using observational (1991-2020 and June 2021 extreme heat event) and scenario-driven temperature projections (2036-2065), compared outputs against relevant existing indices, and analyzed sensitivity to model structure and variable parameterization. We used descriptive statistics, maps, visualizations and correlation analyses to present results.

Results: The Climate and Health Risk Tool (CHaRT) heat risk model contains 25 primary hazard, exposure, and vulnerability variables and multiple levels of variable combinations. The model estimates population-weighted and unweighted heat health risk for selected periods and displays estimates on an online visualization platform. Population-weighted risk is historically moderate and primarily limited by hazard, increasing significantly during extreme heat events. Unweighted risk is helpful in identifying lower population areas that have high vulnerability and hazard. Model vulnerability correlate well with existing vulnerability and environmental justice indices.

Discussion: The tool provides location-specific insights into risk drivers and prioritization of risk reduction interventions including population-specific behavioral interventions and built environment modifications. Insights from causal pathways linking climate-sensitive hazards and adverse health impacts can be used to generate hazard-specific models to support adaptation planning.

Keywords: Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Decision support; Environment and public health; Hazard mapping; Heat; Protective factors; Risk; Risk assessment; Risk factors; Risk management; Vulnerability mapping.

Publication types

Systematic Review
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Climate Change
Extreme Heat*
Hot Temperature*
Morbidity
Risk Factors
Temperature