Background: Long-term disability after stroke is standardly assessed 3 months post-onset, using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). The value of an early, day 4 mRS assessment for projecting the 3-month disability outcome has not been formally investigated.
Methods: In this cohort of patients with acute cerebral ischemia and intracranial hemorrhage, we analyzed day 4 and day 90 mRS assessments in the NIH Field Administration of Stroke Therapy- Magnesium (FAST-MAG) Phase 3 trial. The performance of day 4 mRS, alone and as part of multivariate models, in predicting day 90 mRS was assessed using correlation coefficients, percent agreement, and the kappa statistics.
Results: Among the 1573 acute cerebrovascular disease (ACVD) patients, 1206 (76.7%) had acute cerebral ischemia (ACI), while 367 (23.3%) had intracranial hemorrhage. Among all 1573 ACVD patients, day 4 mRS and day 90 mRS correlated strongly, Spearman's rho=0.79, in unadjusted analysis with weighted kappa of 0.59. For dichotomized outcomes, simple carry-forward of the day 4 mRS performed fairly well in agreeing with day 90 mRS: mRS 0-1 (k=0.67), 85.4%; mRS 0-2 (k=0.59), 79.5%; fatal outcome, 88.3% (k=0.33). Correlations of 4d and 90d mRS were stronger for ACI than ICH patients, 0.76 vs 0.71.
Conclusions: In this acute cerebrovascular disease patient cohort, assessment of global disability performed on day 4 is highly informative regarding long-term, 3-month mRS disability outcome, alone, and even more strongly in combination with baseline prognostic variables. The day 4 mRS is a useful measure for imputing the final patient disability outcome in clinical trials and quality improvement programs.