Confounding Fuels Hereditarian Fallacies

bioRxiv [Preprint]. 2024 Apr 23:2023.11.01.565061. doi: 10.1101/2023.11.01.565061.

Abstract

Scientific literature has seen a resurgence of interest in genetic influences on socioeconomic outcomes. Such investigations are often limited by confounding between signals of genetic and non-genetic influences. An illustrative example is Clark (2023), which considers the similarity in socioeconomic status between relatives, drawing on genealogical records spanning four centuries in England. Based on the fit of a quantitative genetics model, it suggests that social status is largely determined by one's DNA; and that, for that reason, contemporary English people "remain correlated in outcomes with their lineage relatives in exactly the same way as in preindustrial England." These conclusions are based on a conflation of genetic and non-genetic transmission (e.g., of wealth) within families. We demonstrate that additional errors and statistical artifacts influenced inferences in Clark (2023). In reality, Clark (2023) provides no information about the relative contribution of genetic and non-genetic factors to social status. We discuss how lessons learned from the failure to account for confounding generalize to contemporary studies that claim to establish genetic underpinnings to social outcomes.

Publication types

  • Preprint